Big Ten · 2026
Michigan State
1–0
#71
CFPi+
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CFPi+ Index
CFPi+
-0.9#71
Offense
+26.5#70
Defense
+27.5#73
National Composite
-0.7#71
EPi+ Efficiency
-7.9#97
TPi+ Talent
+4.3#54
Head Coach
-16.0#125
EPi+ Efficiency Index
EPi+
-7.1#100
Off EPi+
-4.5#102
Def EPi+
+2.7#97
Off Success
37.6%#106
Def Success
28.6%#36
Havoc Created
26.2%#17
Advanced Stats
| Stat | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Success Rate | 37.6% | #106 | 28.6% | #36 |
| Explosiveness | +1.1 | #102 | +2.3 | #136 |
| Havoc Rate | 10.6% | #47 | 26.2% | #17 |
| Pass PPA | +0.3 | #68 | +0.5 | #119 |
| Rush PPA | -0.2 | #121 | +0.0 | #81 |
TPi+ Talent Index
TPi+
+4.3#54
Recruiting
+5.3#52
Returning
-14.8#115
247 Talent
685.0#61
Head Coach
-16.0#125
National Composite
C
-0.7#71
SP+
+1.0#71
SP+ Off
+26.9#60
SP+ Def
+25.5#66
ESPN FPI
+1.3#62
Traditional Stats
Yards/G
397.0#71
Yards/G Allowed
273.0#52
Pass Yards/G
247.0#60
Rush Yards/G
150.0#80
3rd Down
33.3%#101
3rd Down Allowed
12.5%#14
Sacks/G
2.0#48
Takeaways/G
1.0#52
2026 Scheduleprojected 4.73–7.27
Record
2–0
Simulated
2–10
Projected
4.9–7.1
Best case
7–5
Worst case
2–10
| WK | OPPONENT | RESULT | PROJECTED | WIN PROB | MARKET | EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs#93 Toledo | W 30–20 | Final | |||
| 2 | vs#121 Eastern Michigan | W 35–7 | Final | |||
| 3 | @#3 Notre Dame | — | Lose by 34.7 10–45 | 2.3% | — | — |
| 4 | vs#26 Nebraska | — | Lose by 6.7 23–30 | 35.1% | — | — |
| 5 | @#69 Wisconsin | — | Lose by 5.0 20–24 | 38.8% | — | — |
| 6 | vs#40 Illinois | — | Lose by 2.7 27–30 | 43.9% | — | — |
| 7 | vs#48 Northwestern | — | Lose by 0.9 24–26 | 48.0% | — | — |
| 8 | @#36 UCLA | — | Lose by 12.2 20–31 | 24.3% | — | — |
| 10 | @#19 Michigan | — | Lose by 21.8 14–35 | 10.6% | +16.5 | -5.3 |
| 11 | vs#28 Washington | — | Lose by 6.3 21–28 | 35.9% | — | — |
| 12 | vs#5 Oregon | — | Lose by 21.2 17–38 | 11.2% | — | — |
| 13 | @#66 Rutgers | — | Lose by 3.4 28–31 | 42.3% | — | — |
CFPi+ V2026.2 · data vintage 9/8/2026