A transparent breakdown of the CFPi+ methodology — what goes in, how it's weighted, and where we're taking it next.
01What Is CFPi+?
The College Football Power Index (CFPi+) is expressed as a projected mean point differential above or below an average FBS team on a neutral field. A CFPi+ of +7.4, for example, means that team is projected to outperform the average FBS opponent by roughly a touchdown.
Win probability is derived from this number using the inherent variance and standard deviation in college football outcomes. A large CFPi+ gap doesn't guarantee a win — it shifts the probability distribution in that team's favor.
To estimate a matchup spread, subtract one team's CFPi+ from the other's. Raw CFPi+ values assume a true neutral field — but our dynamic HFA calculator adjusts for the real environment of each game, quantifying expected points added by a specific venue based on travel distance, weather conditions, traditional rivalries, and the intensity of the home fan base.
CFPi+ = f(Advanced Stats, Opponent Strength, Team Talent, Power Ranking Composite)
02What Goes Into the Model
Adjusted Efficiency
Points per drive adjusted for opponent quality. Offense and defense rated independently, then combined.
Success Rate
The most predictive stat in college football. Measures how often a team gains positive expected value on a given down and distance.
Strength of Schedule
Iterative opponent quality weighting. Games against stronger opponents carry more predictive weight.
Talent Composite
Recruiting rankings and portal activity blended into a roster quality score (TPi+).
Advanced Stats
Explosiveness, havoc rate, line yards, and finishing drives — granular metrics that surface what box scores miss.
Power Ranking Composite
A weighted average of ESPN FPI, Past SP+, Current SP+, SRS, and Kelly Ford Rankings. Normalizes outliers and softens data spikes.
03How to Read the Numbers
The CFPi+ is expressed as a projected mean point differential above or below an average FBS team on a neutral field. A CFPi+ of +7.4, for example, means that team is projected to outperform the average FBS opponent by roughly a touchdown.
Win probability is derived from the variance and standard deviation inherent in college football outcomes — a large gap shifts the distribution in that team's favor but doesn't guarantee a result.
To estimate a spread for any matchup, subtract one CFPi+ from the other. The dynamic HFA calculator then applies venue-specific adjustments — accounting for travel distance, weather, rivalry intensity, and the raw decibel level of the home crowd.
04What's Coming
Live
2025-26 Season Final CFPi+ Power Index
136 FBS teams ranked by our composite power metric — final end-of-season standings
Live
2025-26 Season Final EPi+ Efficiency Index
Offensive and defensive efficiency breakdowns for all 136 FBS teams
Live
2025-26 Advanced Stats, Talent Composite & Strength of Record